Probabilistic Forecasting of the 500 hPa Geopotential Height over the Northern Hemisphere Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and ensemble output statistics (EMOS) were used to improve the prediction skill of 500 hPa geopotential height field over northern hemisphere with lead times 1–7 days based on forecasts from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers Environmental Prediction (NCEP), UK Met Office (UKMO) systems. The performance BMA EMOS compared each other raw ensembles climatological perspective both deterministic probabilistic forecasting. results show that distribution obtained are more similar observed than ensembles, especially western Pacific subtropical high. provide a better calibrated sharper probability density function ensembles. They also superior according Brier score score. Comparisons between performs slightly 1–4 days, whereas longer times. In general, field.